Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 1?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $394 held · ends Nov 1

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$393.66

Combined PnL

$7.67

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 76.2¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$256.33

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$6.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.61

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$1.2

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 83.3¢	$253.99	$142.03	+$4.81	19% 352-1519 (1871)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$100.59	$134.72	+$35.18	59% 1899-1330 (3229)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.7¢	$47.48	$89	+$40.03
└ No leg	Noavg 84.3¢	$50.57	$45.72	-$4.85
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 77.5¢	$116.25	$114.3	+$1.65	54% 457-383 (840)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$2.54	$2.61	+$1.2	56% 14151-10960 (25111)

Istaroth

Invested

$253.99

Value

$142.03

PnL

+$4.81

Record

19%

352-1519 (1871)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$100.59

Value

$134.72

PnL

+$35.18

Record

59%

1899-1330 (3229)

Both legs:

Yes$47.4812.7¢+$40.03

No$50.5784.3¢-$4.85

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$116.25

Value

$114.3

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

457-383 (840)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$1.2

Record

56%

14151-10960 (25111)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.1%

76.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.