Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 2?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 19¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 2

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$149.01

Combined PnL

-$45.01

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 19.5¢

-36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$92.56

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$51.74

No2 traders

Total Value$56.45

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$6.73

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$141.9	$90.16	-$51.74	50% 670-669 (1339)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$32.42	$37.03	+$4.61	42% 1724-2356 (4080)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$17.3	$19.42	+$2.12	56% 14204-11005 (25209)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	59% 1908-1339 (3247)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$141.9

Value

$90.16

PnL

-$51.74

Record

50%

670-669 (1339)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$32.42

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$4.61

Record

42%

1724-2356 (4080)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$2.12

Record

56%

14204-11005 (25209)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.