Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $951 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$950.77
$61.11
71¢ → 78¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $911.67 | $701.99 | +$56.6 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $265.49 | $205.01 | -$23.56 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.8¢ | $149.34 | $159.91 | +$10.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $59.47 | $45.1 | -$34.13 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $34.94 | $39.39 | +$4.45 | 18% 525-2347 (2872) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $4.32 | $4.38 | +$0.06 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
Invested
$911.67
Value
$701.99
PnL
+$56.6
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$265.49
Value
$205.01
PnL
-$23.56
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$34.94
Value
$39.39
PnL
+$4.45
Record
18%
525-2347 (2872)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.