Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 36¢ · $348 held · ends Oct 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$347.62

Combined PnL

$20.72

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 35.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$277.85

Total Shares767

Combined PnL+$23.9

No2 traders

Total Value$69.77

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$3.18

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.8¢	$91.85	$110.29	+$18.44	50% 647-636 (1283)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$82.64	$79.97	-$2.67	62% 1444-889 (2333)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$50.49	$51.86	+$1.37	59% 1805-1255 (3060)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 70¢	$39.65	$38.29	-$1.36	50% 1825-1804 (3629)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$28.97	$35.73	+$6.76	55% 410-333 (743)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$43.71	$31.48	-$1.82	57% 13766-10533 (24299)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$91.85

Value

$110.29

PnL

+$18.44

Record

50%

647-636 (1283)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.64

Value

$79.97

PnL

-$2.67

Record

62%

1444-889 (2333)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.49

Value

$51.86

PnL

+$1.37

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$39.65

Value

$38.29

PnL

-$1.36

Record

50%

1825-1804 (3629)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.97

Value

$35.73

PnL

+$6.76

Record

55%

410-333 (743)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.71

Value

$31.48

PnL

-$1.82

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.