Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on November 15?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 79¢ · $327 held · ended Nov 15

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$327.05

Combined PnL

-$33.18

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 79.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$301.12

Total Shares334

Combined PnL-$9.86

Yes5 traders

Total Value$25.93

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$23.31

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 84¢	$225.85	$242.64	+$16.79	61% 1209-766 (1975)
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.7¢	$186.64	$43.57	-$26.12	43% 848-1138 (1986)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$37.12	$19.72	-$17.4	54% 1246-1067 (2313)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$5.37	$5.32	-$0.05	70% 975-415 (1390)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$4.87	$4.52	-$0.35	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$7.97	$3.3	-$4.67	52% 988-928 (1916)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$2.71	$2.71	+$0	60% 929-631 (1560)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$2.5	$2.36	-$0.14	99% 1717-24 (1741)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$1.7	-$0.12	14% 109-653 (762)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$2.06	$0.9	-$1.16	47% 930-1053 (1983)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$0.27	$0.31	+$0.04	56% 882-689 (1571)

vibing123

Invested

$225.85

Value

$242.64

PnL

+$16.79

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

241532532432

Invested

$186.64

Value

$43.57

PnL

-$26.12

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$17.4

Record

54%

1246-1067 (2313)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.97

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$4.67

Record

52%

988-928 (1916)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

929-631 (1560)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

99%

1717-24 (1741)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.12

Record

14%

109-653 (762)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.16

Record

47%

930-1053 (1983)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

882-689 (1571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.2%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.