Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 13?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 57¢ · $749 held · ended Nov 13

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$748.73

Combined PnL

$303.12

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 57.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$467.55

Total Shares882

Combined PnL+$231.96

No9 traders

Total Value$281.19

Total Shares585

Combined PnL+$71.16

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$132.61	$307.2	+$174.59	56% 1073-841 (1914)
HE hello.67	Noavg 66.4¢	$796.11	$153.85	+$82.77	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$64	$108.18	+$44.18	39% 31-48 (79)
24 241532532432	Noavg 57.1¢	$209.84	$73.82	-$8.78	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.6¢	$33.98	$44.38	+$10.4	71% 76-31 (107)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52.4¢	$26.73	$15.35	-$1.71	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$16.12	$13.91	-$0.55	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 54.8¢	$8.92	$8.3	-$0.62	50% 651-658 (1309)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$5	$7.79	+$2.79	32% 222-462 (684)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 47¢	$4.8	$4.8	+$0	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 52¢	$4.89	$4.8	-$0.09	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$3.46	$3.72	+$0.26	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.76	$2.65	-$0.1	48% 710-781 (1491)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$132.61

Value

$307.2

PnL

+$174.59

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

hello.67

Invested

$796.11

Value

$153.85

PnL

+$82.77

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$108.18

PnL

+$44.18

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

241532532432

Invested

$209.84

Value

$73.82

PnL

-$8.78

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.98

Value

$44.38

PnL

+$10.4

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$1.71

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.12

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$0.55

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.92

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$2.79

Record

32%

222-462 (684)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0.26

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.