Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$90.44

Combined PnL

-$89.01

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$89.96

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.48

Total Shares960

Combined PnL-$89.06

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1580-23 (1603)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	38% 319-511 (830)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.82	$0.21	-$38.6	49% 844-877 (1721)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.97	$0.13	-$22.84	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.36	$0.06	-$10.31	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.84	$0.03	-$5.8	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.44	$0.03	-$6.32	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.74	$0.02	-$4.09	24% 779-2522 (3301)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.63	$0	-$0.63	17% 858-4053 (4911)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	26% 600-1738 (2338)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

319-511 (830)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.82

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$38.6

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.97

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$22.84

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.36

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.31

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.8

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.32

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.74

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.09

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

PnL

-$0.63

Record

17%

858-4053 (4911)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.