Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $124 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$123.69

Combined PnL

-$45.15

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$123.48

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.21

Total Shares420

Combined PnL-$45.43

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$72.86	$73.02	+$0.16	34% 309-591 (900)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.84	$39.96	+$0.12	36% 291-514 (805)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7	$7	+$0	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1531-23 (1554)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.55	$0.14	-$25.4	49% 828-851 (1679)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.53	$0.03	-$6.23	28% 3272-8320 (11592)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.02	-$3.62	42% 5184-7017 (12201)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.6	$0.01	-$3.95	24% 767-2452 (3219)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$50.61	$0.01	-$5.78	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	26% 586-1706 (2292)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$72.86

Value

$73.02

PnL

+$0.16

Record

34%

309-591 (900)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

291-514 (805)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1531-23 (1554)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.55

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.4

Record

49%

828-851 (1679)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.53

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.23

Record

28%

3272-8320 (11592)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

42%

5184-7017 (12201)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.6

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.95

Record

24%

767-2452 (3219)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.78

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

586-1706 (2292)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.