Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on November 15?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $448 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$448.03

Combined PnL

$10.47

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$446.54

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$13.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.46

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$3.06

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 99.5¢	$113.88	$114.24	+$0.35	57% 812-615 (1427)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 99.9¢	$113.89	$113.15	-$0.74	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$49.85	+$7.35	30% 1153-2701 (3854)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$40.81	$40.84	+$0.04	50% 894-902 (1796)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 93¢	$37.2	$39.88	+$2.68	42% 1671-2307 (3978)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 91¢	$21.01	$23.02	+$2.01	38% 308-501 (809)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.2	$16.21	+$1.38	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.21	$10.21	+$0	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.19	$10.14	-$0.05	47% 870-964 (1834)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.07	$8.08	+$0.01	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.25	$5.22	-$0.03	52% 916-856 (1772)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.97	$5.06	+$0.1	53% 882-796 (1678)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.63	$4.93	+$0.45	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.21	$3.21	-$0	49% 828-850 (1678)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1517-23 (1540)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.48	$1.43	-$3.05	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.01	58% 839-597 (1436)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$113.88

Value

$114.24

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$113.89

Value

$113.15

PnL

-$0.74

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$49.85

PnL

+$7.35

Record

30%

1153-2701 (3854)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$40.81

Value

$40.84

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$2.68

Record

42%

1671-2307 (3978)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$21.01

Value

$23.02

PnL

+$2.01

Record

38%

308-501 (809)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.2

Value

$16.21

PnL

+$1.38

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.48

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$3.05

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.