Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 15?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.54

Combined PnL

-$99.28

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL-$99.28

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.82	$0.21	-$38.6	49% 844-877 (1721)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.97	$0.13	-$22.84	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.36	$0.06	-$10.31	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.28	$0.06	-$10.22	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.84	$0.03	-$5.8	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.44	$0.03	-$6.32	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.74	$0.02	-$4.09	24% 779-2522 (3301)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.63	$0	-$0.63	17% 858-4053 (4911)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	26% 600-1738 (2338)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.82

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$38.6

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.97

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$22.84

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.36

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.31

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.28

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.22

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.8

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.32

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.74

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.09

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

PnL

-$0.63

Record

17%

858-4053 (4911)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.