Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on November 14?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.33

Combined PnL

-$64.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares660

Combined PnL-$64.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.64	$0.18	-$32.46	58% 703-504 (1207)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.64	$0.03	-$5.61	27% 673-1791 (2464)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	44% 5041-6482 (11523)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$0.02	-$4.44	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.02	-$3.62	29% 3160-7827 (10987)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$53.04	$0.02	-$7.57	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.06	$0.01	-$1.05	26% 548-1574 (2122)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0	-$0.86	37% 1516-2567 (4083)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	39% 3605-5672 (9277)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.53	$0	-$0.53	33% 220-451 (671)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.46

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.61

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

44%

5041-6482 (11523)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.44

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

29%

3160-7827 (10987)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.04

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.57

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.05

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

PnL

-$0.86

Record

37%

1516-2567 (4083)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

PnL

-$0.53

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.