Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 14?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 100¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

Total Value

$205.9

Combined PnL

-$28.71

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$205.76

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$1.1

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$29.81

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.3¢	$158.93	$159.92	+$0.99	99% 1195-12 (1207)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.92	$29.99	+$0.07	29% 232-564 (796)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$10	+$0.03	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.84	$5.86	+$0.01	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.82	$0.04	-$7.78	58% 699-503 (1202)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$0.02	-$4.44	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$52.89	$0.02	-$7.18	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.06	$0.01	-$1.05	26% 548-1574 (2122)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.41	$0	-$0.41	37% 1515-2566 (4081)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$158.93

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$0.99

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.78

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.44

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.89

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.18

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.05

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

PnL

-$0.41

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.