Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on November 14?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$100.12

Combined PnL

-$35.11

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$35.16

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.82	$0.04	-$7.78	58% 699-503 (1202)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$0.02	-$4.44	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.17	$0.02	-$4.15	33% 220-451 (671)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.96	$0.02	-$7.57	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.06	$0.01	-$1.05	26% 548-1574 (2122)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	18% 853-3894 (4747)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.41	$0	-$0.41	37% 1515-2566 (4081)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.78

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.44

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.15

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.96

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.57

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.05

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

18%

853-3894 (4747)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

PnL

-$0.41

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.