Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 13?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $422 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$421.8

Combined PnL

-$61.32

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$420.69

Total Shares421

Combined PnL+$0.98

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.11

Total Shares740

Combined PnL-$62.31

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$90.93	$90.88	-$0.05	63% 720-431 (1151)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$88.74	$89.67	+$0.92	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$72.01	$71.97	-$0.04	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$68.59	$68.56	-$0.03	51% 748-722 (1470)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$37.35	$37.33	-$0.02	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$17.83	$18	+$0.17	49% 739-774 (1513)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.64	$17.63	-$0.01	50% 704-694 (1398)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.06	$15.06	-$0.01	49% 769-816 (1585)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.04	$9.03	-$0.01	58% 692-501 (1193)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	99% 1243-13 (1256)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$47.16	$0.78	-$46.39	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$18.53	$0.17	-$9.04	58% 705-507 (1212)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.06	$0.08	-$4.97	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.18	$0.05	-$0.13	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.03	-$1.78	44% 5060-6556 (11616)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$90.93

Value

$90.88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$88.74

Value

$89.67

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$72.01

Value

$71.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$68.59

Value

$68.56

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$37.35

Value

$37.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.83

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.16

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$46.39

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.53

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$9.04

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.97

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.78

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.