Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $302 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$302.11
$6.83
94.6¢ → 77.7¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 96.9¢ | $184.48 | $189.88 | +$5.41 | 61% 20831-13241 (34072) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 91.7¢ | $102.2 | $100.04 | -$0.04 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $10.72 | $12.1 | +$1.39 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $0.09 | +$0.08 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
balthazarInvested
$184.48
Value
$189.88
PnL
+$5.41
Record
61%
20831-13241 (34072)
IstarothInvested
$102.2
Value
$100.04
PnL
-$0.04
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$10.72
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$1.39
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.