Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 28?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $173 held · ends Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$172.95

Combined PnL

-$0.71

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$172.89

Total Shares173

Combined PnL-$0.17

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.07

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.54

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.93	$59.9	-$0.03	61% 20619-13064 (33683)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$33.61	$33.59	-$0.02	29% 188-471 (659)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$33.64	$33.59	-$0.05	30% 255-588 (843)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$33.64	$33.59	-$0.05	40% 384-571 (955)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.14	$7.13	-$0.01	31% 307-668 (975)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.1	$5.1	-$0.01	52% 2422-2215 (4637)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.6	$0.07	-$0.54	35% 14744-26906 (41650)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.93

Value

$59.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

61%

20619-13064 (33683)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$33.61

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

188-471 (659)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$33.64

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

255-588 (843)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$33.64

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

384-571 (955)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

31%

307-668 (975)

merod<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

2422-2215 (4637)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.54

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.