Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 8?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $473 held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$472.58

Combined PnL

$85.53

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 99.8¢

+20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$472.55

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$85.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$144.22	$114.9	-$0.14	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$136.75	$98.56	-$0.03	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$10.4	$87.69	+$86.1	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$63.94	$55.44	-$0.17	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$51.24	$46.11	-$0.13	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.76	$31.69	-$0.07	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$51.5	$20.52	-$0.01	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.16	$4.15	-$0.01	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	-$0	97% 522-14 (536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.01	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.02	47% 2105-2397 (4502)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$144.22

Value

$114.9

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

Lucerys

Invested

$136.75

Value

$98.56

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$87.69

PnL

+$86.1

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$63.94

Value

$55.44

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$51.24

Value

$46.11

PnL

-$0.13

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.76

Value

$31.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0

Record

97%

522-14 (536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.