Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 5?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 32¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 5

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$190.61

Combined PnL

$31.16

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$100.92

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$17.82

No7 traders

Total Value$89.69

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$13.34

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 49.2¢	$100	$62	+$12.8	41% 799-1129 (1928)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$46.53	$46.97	+$0.45	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 63.8¢	$34.47	$37.01	+$2.54	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$42.76	$16.85	+$15.77	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$36.26	$14.91	-$2.57	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$3.83	$3.79	-$0.04	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$3	$3.01	+$0.01	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$2.27	$2.28	+$0.01	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$2.32	$1.91	+$2.48	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.86	-$0.29	20% 2587-10256 (12843)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$62

PnL

+$12.8

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$46.53

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.47

Value

$37.01

PnL

+$2.54

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$42.76

Value

$16.85

PnL

+$15.77

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$36.26

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$2.57

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$0.04

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$2.48

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.29

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.