Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 36¢ · $741 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$740.74
$7.98
39¢ → 36¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $250.44 | $285.8 | +$35.36 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $254.61 | $234.98 | -$19.63 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $65.69 | $65.24 | -$0.45 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $56.09 | $50 | -$1.98 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $48.53 | $48.13 | -$0.4 | 53% 6687-5886 (12573) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.8¢ | $46.54 | $39.47 | -$7.08 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $48.63 | $17.12 | +$2.16 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
Invested
$250.44
Value
$285.8
PnL
+$35.36
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$254.61
Value
$234.98
PnL
-$19.63
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$65.69
Value
$65.24
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$56.09
Value
$50
PnL
-$1.98
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
Invested
$48.53
Value
$48.13
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
6687-5886 (12573)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$46.54
Value
$39.47
PnL
-$7.08
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$48.63
Value
$17.12
PnL
+$2.16
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.