Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 5?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 82¢ · $614 held · ends Nov 5

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$614.22

Combined PnL

$22.67

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 82¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$586.84

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$19.2

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.25

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$3.46

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 83.2¢	$293.24	$285.51	-$7.73	41% 799-1129 (1928)
Istaroth	Noavg 87.4¢	$120.67	$69.3	-$6.1	14% 461-2750 (3211)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$66.96	$66.4	-$0.8	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$52.57	$52.15	+$42.55	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$82	$35	-$6.09	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$72.28	$33.2	-$1.66	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$23.15	$26.4	+$3.25	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$21.09	$20.21	-$0.88	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$14.28	$14.2	-$0.08	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84¢	$9.37	$9.26	-$0.11	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.51	$1.61	+$0.1	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.64	$0.85	+$0.21	20% 2587-10256 (12843)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$293.24

Value

$285.51

PnL

-$7.73

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

Istaroth

Invested

$120.67

Value

$69.3

PnL

-$6.1

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$66.96

Value

$66.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$52.57

Value

$52.15

PnL

+$42.55

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82

Value

$35

PnL

-$6.09

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$72.28

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$1.66

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.15

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$3.25

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$20.21

PnL

-$0.88

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.37

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.11

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.21

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.