Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 4?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 66¢ · $526 held · ends Nov 4

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$525.77

Combined PnL

$99.92

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 65.5¢

-8% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$404.02

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$99.71

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.5

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0.21

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 75¢	$314.3	$338.52	+$24.22	42% 779-1075 (1854)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$162.36	$114.24	+$29.27	16% 427-2300 (2727)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.6¢	$53.11	$89.74	+$47.86
└ No leg	Noavg 63.1¢	$31.57	$24.5	-$18.59
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 69¢	$27.6	$19.6	-$8	20% 2469-9859 (12328)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 22.1¢	$28.5	$19.15	+$83.39	51% 3482-3360 (6842)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.6¢	$7.29	$7.5	+$0.21	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$6.26	$5.42	+$0.29	40% 980-1494 (2474)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.39	$3.94	-$1.45	53% 9602-8425 (18027)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.32	$3.5	+$0.19	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.21	$3.39	+$0.18	40% 1008-1505 (2513)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 73¢	$10.28	$3.28	+$0.17	61% 15629-9929 (25558)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.52	$2.95	+$0.43	40% 2066-3096 (5162)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.45	+$0.05	50% 473-472 (945)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$1.57	$1.81	+$0.24	39% 974-1548 (2522)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$314.3

Value

$338.52

PnL

+$24.22

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$162.36

Value

$114.24

PnL

+$29.27

Record

16%

427-2300 (2727)

Both legs:

Yes$53.1129.6¢+$47.86

No$31.5763.1¢-$18.59

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$8

Record

20%

2469-9859 (12328)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$19.15

PnL

+$83.39

Record

51%

3482-3360 (6842)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.29

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$1.45

Record

53%

9602-8425 (18027)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.18

Record

40%

1008-1505 (2513)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$10.28

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.17

Record

61%

15629-9929 (25558)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.43

Record

40%

2066-3096 (5162)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.24

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.