Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be -3°C or below on November 14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$71.12
-$10.58
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $71.03 | $71.06 | +$0.04 | 99% 1015-11 (1026) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.8 | $0.02 | -$2.79 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 36% 3613-6424 (10037) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.77 | $0.01 | -$1.76 | 29% 185-443 (628) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.19 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 26% 544-1530 (2074) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0 | -$0.9 | 37% 1467-2446 (3913) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.37 | $0 | -$0.37 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
Invested
$71.03
Value
$71.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1015-11 (1026)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.79
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
36%
3613-6424 (10037)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.76
Record
29%
185-443 (628)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
26%
544-1530 (2074)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.9
Record
37%
1467-2446 (3913)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.37
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.37
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.