Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be -2°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $13 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$12.96

Combined PnL

-$33.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$12.79

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares340

Combined PnL-$33.98

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.79	$7.8	+$0	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.91	$0.07	-$12.84	51% 746-711 (1457)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.07	$0.03	-$7.85	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.2	$0.03	-$5.17	33% 220-451 (671)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.1	$0.02	-$3.08	44% 5041-6482 (11523)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.51	$0.01	-$2.68	29% 3160-7827 (10987)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.19	$0.01	-$1.18	26% 548-1574 (2122)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	31% 146-327 (473)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0	-$0.27	39% 3605-5672 (9277)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.91

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.84

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.07

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.85

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.17

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.08

Record

44%

5041-6482 (11523)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.51

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.68

Record

29%

3160-7827 (10987)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.