Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C or higher on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$84.99

Combined PnL

-$6.97

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$84.96

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$7.01

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1015-11 (1026)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.8	$0.02	-$2.79	30% 187-428 (615)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.19	$0.01	-$1.18	26% 544-1530 (2074)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	30% 108-251 (359)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.6	$0	-$0.6	29% 185-443 (628)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0	-$0.9	37% 1467-2446 (3913)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.37	$0	-$0.37	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0	-$0.27	39% 3479-5356 (8835)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.79

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

PnL

-$0.9

Record

37%

1467-2446 (3913)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

PnL

-$0.37

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.