Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 14?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 70%
$116.08
-$12.65
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.92 | +$0 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $28.25 | $28.25 | +$0 | 28% 1014-2623 (3637) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.79 | $7.79 | +$0 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.1 | $0.03 | -$3.06 | 44% 5031-6456 (11487) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.54 | $0.03 | -$3.5 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.34 | $0.02 | -$3.15 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.19 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.6 | $0.01 | -$0.6 | 34% 231-458 (689) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.27 | $0 | -$0.27 | 39% 3599-5657 (9256) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.92
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
Invested
$28.25
Value
$28.25
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
1014-2623 (3637)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$7.79
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$3.06
Record
44%
5031-6456 (11487)
Invested
$3.54
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$3.5
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$21.34
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.15
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.6
Record
34%
231-458 (689)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
39%
3599-5657 (9256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.