Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $111 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$110.58

Combined PnL

-$3.55

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99.8¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$110.44

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$1.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$4.62

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$30.51	$29.88	-$0.59	34% 231-458 (689)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.88	+$0	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$19.92	+$1.32	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$9.7	$9.99	+$0.28	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.05	$8.03	-$0.02	63% 714-428 (1142)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.72	$7.77	+$0.05	34% 263-518 (781)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.98	+$0.03	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.77	$0.07	-$3	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.31	$0.03	-$0.28	13% 76-495 (571)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.89	31% 146-327 (473)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0.01	-$0.27	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.2	$0	-$0.19	33% 220-451 (671)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$30.51

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.59

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.77

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.28

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.