Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 14?

16 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $361 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$361.46

Combined PnL

-$2.65

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$361.35

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$2.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.33

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.3¢	$111.69	$114.14	+$2.45	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$60.14	$60.04	-$0.11	58% 679-500 (1179)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.97	$29.52	-$0.05	34% 231-458 (689)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.52	+$0.12	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$27.23	$27.12	-$0.11	48% 757-814 (1571)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$86.62	$19.71	-$4.65	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$17.02	$16.91	-$0.11	49% 731-768 (1499)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.5	$12.3	+$0.8	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$11.92	$11.84	-$0.08	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.41	$10.37	-$0.05	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$7.93	$7.88	-$0.05	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 94¢	$7.33	$7.68	+$0.34	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.65	$5.03	-$1	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.92	+$0.22	34% 263-518 (781)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.93	$1.92	-$0.01	51% 742-710 (1452)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0.07	-$0.2	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.2	$0.03	-$0.13	33% 220-451 (671)

241532532432

Invested

$111.69

Value

$114.14

PnL

+$2.45

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$60.14

Value

$60.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.05

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.52

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$27.23

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$86.62

Value

$19.71

PnL

-$4.65

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.02

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$11.84

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.34

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.65

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$1

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.22

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.13

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.