Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$58.4

Combined PnL

-$70.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$51.21

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$3.13

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.2

Total Shares1,080

Combined PnL-$73.97

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$27.13	$29.97	+$2.84	34% 263-518 (781)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.05	$8.04	-$0.01	50% 697-689 (1386)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96¢	$7.49	$7.79	+$0.3	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.4	$5.4	-$0.01	49% 731-768 (1499)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$38.48	$3.24	-$35.24	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$18.88	$2.31	-$16.57	40% 620-939 (1559)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.28	$1	+$0.71	13% 76-495 (571)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$171.6	$0.28	-$20.38	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.21	-$2.52	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$19.86	$0.14	+$0.28	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0.02	-$0.25	39% 3599-5657 (9256)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$27.13

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$2.84

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$7.49

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$0.3

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.48

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$35.24

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.88

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$16.57

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

PnL

+$0.71

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$171.6

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$20.38

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$2.52

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.86

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.