Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 0°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$80.09

Combined PnL

-$28.06

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.31

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$28.37

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.99	+$0.08	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.99	+$0.11	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.99	+$0.13	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.82	$0.08	-$13.74	51% 746-711 (1457)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$39.6	$0.03	-$7.79	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.79	$0.01	-$3.07	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.42	$0.01	-$2.59	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	31% 146-327 (473)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.27	$0	-$0.27	39% 3605-5672 (9277)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$13.74

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.79

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.79

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.07

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.59

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.