Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on November 9?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 57¢ · $408 held · ends Nov 9

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$407.57

Combined PnL

$5.78

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 57¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$178.56

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$9.8

No10 traders

Total Value$142.51

Total Shares299

Combined PnL-$4.01

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 41.8¢	$142.46	$149.29	+$6.84	21% 929-3491 (4420)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$79.63	$86.49	+$6.87	55% 25974-21276 (47250)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.3¢	$49.18	$54.68	+$5.5
└ No leg	Noavg 41.2¢	$30.44	$31.81	+$1.37
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$42.59	$40.94	-$1.65	47% 47403-53712 (101115)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$21.53	$29.69	+$8.16	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$32.8	$27.08	-$5.72	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.64	$13.17	-$0.47	22% 3337-11823 (15160)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.1	$11.15	+$1.06	59% 7342-5092 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$8.96	$10.88	+$1.92	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 47¢	$110.57	$8.2	-$1.2	13% 680-4591 (5271)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$9.11	$8.19	-$0.92	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$7.24	$7.23	-$0.01	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$6.43	$5.85	-$0.58	43% 5541-7239 (12780)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$5.53	$4.08	-$1.45	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.05	$3.02	-$0.03	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.44	$2.29	-$0.15	30% 2853-6533 (9386)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$142.46

Value

$149.29

PnL

+$6.84

Record

21%

929-3491 (4420)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.63

Value

$86.49

PnL

+$6.87

Record

55%

25974-21276 (47250)

Both legs:

Yes$49.1851.3¢+$5.5

No$30.4441.2¢+$1.37

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$42.59

Value

$40.94

PnL

-$1.65

Record

47%

47403-53712 (101115)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$21.53

Value

$29.69

PnL

+$8.16

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$27.08

PnL

-$5.72

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$13.64

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$0.47

Record

22%

3337-11823 (15160)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.1

Value

$11.15

PnL

+$1.06

Record

59%

7342-5092 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$1.92

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$110.57

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

13%

680-4591 (5271)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$9.11

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$6.43

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.58

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$1.45

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.