Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$0.14
-$13.23
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.06 | $0.06 | -$11.5 | 46% 3898-4513 (8411) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.06 | $0.06 | +$0 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.16 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $0.57 | $0 | -$0.57 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.5
Record
46%
3898-4513 (8411)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.16
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.57
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.57
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.