Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 6?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 32¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$44.09
$27.87
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.2 | $19.2 | +$18 | 52% 31034-29006 (60040) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.57 | $13.62 | +$13.04 | 28% 2883-7414 (10297) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $3.22 | $11.17 | -$3.17 | 17% 4506-22056 (26562) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.