Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on November 5?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$158.66
$6.15
74.4¢ → 73¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 74.5¢ | $138.75 | $116.8 | -$1.95 | 15% 447-2555 (3002) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $24.1 | $32.1 | +$8 | 58% 2476-1805 (4281) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $5.94 | $6.11 | +$0.17 | 58% 19232-14159 (33391) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $3.85 | $3.65 | -$0.08 | 43% 2152-2809 (4961) |
IstarothInvested
$138.75
Value
$116.8
PnL
-$1.95
Record
15%
447-2555 (3002)
Invested
$24.1
Value
$32.1
PnL
+$8
Record
58%
2476-1805 (4281)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
19232-14159 (33391)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$0.08
Record
43%
2152-2809 (4961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.