Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 13 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on November 4?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 0.9¢ · $363 held · ends Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$362.85

Combined PnL

-$29.88

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 0.9¢

-99% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$257.07

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$36.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$105.76

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$6.92

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 59¢	$143.93	$232.11	+$88.18	42% 788-1101 (1889)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 72.8¢	$78.17	$61.99	-$16.18	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$12.06	$25.65	+$13.6	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$8.62	$18.12	+$9.5	47% 1630-1807 (3437)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$25.92	$10.48	-$15.44	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$50.02	$4.33	-$11.77	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$14.66	$3.07	-$8.68	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$24.08	$2.55	-$7.71	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$4.1	$1.09	-$3.01	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$10.76	$0.89	-$9.87	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$7.45	$0.82	+$8.89	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$29.1	$0.71	-$28.39	39% 992-1523 (2515)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$22.61	$0.45	-$22.16	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$18.1	$0.28	-$17.82	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$11.74	$0.2	-$7.87	38% 997-1606 (2603)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$1.25	$0.1	-$1.14	30% 2222-5090 (7312)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$143.93

Value

$232.11

PnL

+$88.18

Record

42%

788-1101 (1889)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.17

Value

$61.99

PnL

-$16.18

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.06

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$13.6

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.62

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$9.5

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$25.92

Value

$10.48

PnL

-$15.44

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$50.02

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$11.77

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$14.66

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$8.68

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$24.08

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$7.71

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$3.01

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$10.76

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$9.87

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$7.45

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$8.89

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$28.39

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$22.16

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.1

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$17.82

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$7.87

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.14

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.