Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$159.22

Combined PnL

-$0.36

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$158.92

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$0.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.3

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$0.6

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.8	$39.92	+$0.12	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.98	$26.97	-$0.01	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.6	$25.59	-$0.01	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$23.36	$23.34	-$0.01	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.04	$11.03	-$0.01	53% 882-796 (1678)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$14.81	$9.98	+$0.17	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7	$7	+$0	99% 1517-23 (1540)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	49% 828-850 (1678)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.02	$5.02	-$0	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	59% 843-574 (1417)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.75	$0.15	-$0.6	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0	14% 98-587 (685)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.8

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$25.6

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$23.36

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.81

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.