Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on November 9?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 12¢ · $41 held · ends Nov 9

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$41.49

Combined PnL

-$7.39

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$27.67

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$10.31

No2 traders

Total Value$13.82

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$2.92

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$28.72	$20.79	-$7.43	25% 2365-7040 (9405)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.89	$9.59	+$2.26	57% 24781-18350 (43131)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.71	$4.23	+$0.66	61% 725-458 (1183)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$4.67	$3.89	-$0.78	53% 5080-4437 (9517)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$5.1	$3	-$2.1	15% 5003-29368 (34371)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.72

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$7.43

Record

25%

2365-7040 (9405)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$2.26

Record

57%

24781-18350 (43131)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.66

Record

61%

725-458 (1183)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

5080-4437 (9517)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$2.1

Record

15%

5003-29368 (34371)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.