Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on November 4?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $349 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$348.6
$178.94
18.8¢ → 58¢
+208% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $92.58 | $315.56 | +$201.35 | 53% 3448-3087 (6535) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $11.81 | +$0.01 | 53% 8987-8029 (17016) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $12.03 | $11.23 | -$0.8 | 79% 11666-3099 (14765) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $49.76 | $10 | -$21.62 | 57% 17871-13366 (31237) |
Invested
$92.58
Value
$315.56
PnL
+$201.35
Record
53%
3448-3087 (6535)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
8987-8029 (17016)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$12.03
Value
$11.23
PnL
-$0.8
Record
79%
11666-3099 (14765)
Invested
$49.76
Value
$10
PnL
-$21.62
Record
57%
17871-13366 (31237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.