Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 42¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$215.45
$76.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $25.03 | $86.44 | +$61.4 | 48% 2079-2228 (4307) |
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $152.89 | $62.36 | -$11.69 | 42% 1809-2491 (4300) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $34.88 | $33.13 | -$8.66 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.5¢ | $31.16 | $29.23 | -$3.03 | |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $310.74 | $37.3 | +$16.52 | 16% 417-2220 (2637) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.8¢ | $23.04 | $21.62 | -$1.42 | 53% 8965-8011 (16976) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $7.83 | $7.73 | -$0.1 | 79% 11628-3057 (14685) |
Invested
$25.03
Value
$86.44
PnL
+$61.4
Record
48%
2079-2228 (4307)
Invested
$152.89
Value
$62.36
PnL
-$11.69
Record
42%
1809-2491 (4300)
Both legs:
IstarothCTRInvested
$310.74
Value
$37.3
PnL
+$16.52
Record
16%
417-2220 (2637)
Invested
$23.04
Value
$21.62
PnL
-$1.42
Record
53%
8965-8011 (16976)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.1
Record
79%
11628-3057 (14685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.