Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on November 13?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 76¢ · $752 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$752.49
$61.97
67.8¢ → 76.1¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $378.66 | $453.35 | +$74.69 | 62% 1125-676 (1801) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $184.59 | $182.62 | -$1.97 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $72.38 | $58.06 | -$14.31 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $39.27 | $40.92 | +$1.65 | 40% 32-49 (81) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $13.47 | $11 | +$1.44 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $5 | $5.46 | +$0.46 | 33% 224-465 (689) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $1.07 | $1.07 | +$0 | 73% 795-298 (1093) |
Invested
$378.66
Value
$453.35
PnL
+$74.69
Record
62%
1125-676 (1801)
Invested
$184.59
Value
$182.62
PnL
-$1.97
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$72.38
Value
$58.06
PnL
-$14.31
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$39.27
Value
$40.92
PnL
+$1.65
Record
40%
32-49 (81)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$11
PnL
+$1.44
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.46
PnL
+$0.46
Record
33%
224-465 (689)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
795-298 (1093)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.