Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 87¢ · $50 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$50.27
-$26.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $36.75 | $17.44 | -$0.63 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $39.24 | $14.34 | -$24.9 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5 | $4.84 | -$0.16 | 22% 113-411 (524) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.83 | $4.62 | -$0.21 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $4.5 | -$0.15 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.5 | -$0.1 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$36.75
Value
$17.44
PnL
-$0.63
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$39.24
Value
$14.34
PnL
-$24.9
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.16
Record
22%
113-411 (524)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.21
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.