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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 78°F or higher on November 8?

Resolved No. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$30.66

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares337

Combined PnL-$30.66

No6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$17.78	—	-$29.29	20% 977-3823 (4800)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$0.87	—	-$1.36	32% 21778-45614 (67392)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35457-83867 (119324)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18536-24186 (42722)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	—	—	+$0	47% 47428-53893 (101321)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	55% 25558-21177 (46735)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6896-8155 (15051)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	37% 16937-29299 (46236)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	43% 5572-7255 (12827)
MI mildwindow27<$100	No	—	—	+$0	49% 24093-24636 (48729)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9328-9390 (18718)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$17.78

Value

—

PnL

-$29.29

Record

20%

977-3823 (4800)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

32%

21778-45614 (67392)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

25558-21177 (46735)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6896-8155 (15051)

god83743894<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

16937-29299 (46236)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

5572-7255 (12827)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

24093-24636 (48729)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d92430c...dd8872

Slug

highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-november-8-2026-78forhigher

Traders in this Market

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

god83743894

No — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

mildwindow27

No — $0

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