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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on November 8?

Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 67%

Total Value

$100

Combined PnL

-$30.56

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$100

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares337

Combined PnL-$30.66

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$100	+$0.1	97% 59717-1869 (61586)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$17.78	—	-$29.29	20% 977-3823 (4800)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$0.87	—	-$1.36	32% 21778-45614 (67392)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35457-83867 (119324)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18536-24186 (42722)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	—	—	+$0	47% 47428-53893 (101321)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6896-8155 (15051)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 21529-21407 (42936)
MI mildwindow27<$100	No	—	—	+$0	49% 24093-24636 (48729)

Invested

$99.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.1

Record

97%

59717-1869 (61586)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$17.78

Value

—

PnL

-$29.29

Record

20%

977-3823 (4800)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

32%

21778-45614 (67392)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6896-8155 (15051)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

21529-21407 (42936)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

24093-24636 (48729)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbb674316...4a9eaf

Slug

highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-november-8-2026-59forbelow

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $100

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

quietparcel

No — $0

mildwindow27

No — $0

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