Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 7?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $10 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$10.21
-$22.57
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $27.16 | $5.08 | -$22.08 | 37% 913-1562 (2475) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $4.93 | $5 | +$0.06 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.68 | $0.14 | -$0.54 | 24% 8014-25858 (33872) |
Invested
$27.16
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$22.08
Record
37%
913-1562 (2475)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.06
Record
41%
2520-3700 (6220)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.54
Record
24%
8014-25858 (33872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.