Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 6?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 42¢ · $576 held · ended Nov 6

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$575.52

Combined PnL

$417.68

Smart Money Entry

19.9¢ → 42¢

+112% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$525.96

Total Shares994

Combined PnL+$319.73

No2 traders

Total Value$49.56

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$97.95

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$186.37	$509	+$322.63	38% 866-1436 (2302)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$38.82	$34.93	-$3.89	62% 667-404 (1071)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 7¢	$10.36	$14.63	+$101.84	38% 1235-2012 (3247)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$6.42	$9.46	+$3.03	57% 736-565 (1301)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$0.53	$3.18	+$1.25	42% 2368-3249 (5617)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.2	+$0.1	54% 10676-9209 (19885)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$279.69	$2.11	-$7.29	13% 550-3636 (4186)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$186.37

Value

$509

PnL

+$322.63

Record

38%

866-1436 (2302)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$38.82

Value

$34.93

PnL

-$3.89

Record

62%

667-404 (1071)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.36

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$101.84

Record

38%

1235-2012 (3247)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.42

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$3.03

Record

57%

736-565 (1301)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$1.25

Record

42%

2368-3249 (5617)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10676-9209 (19885)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$279.69

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$7.29

Record

13%

550-3636 (4186)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.