Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 5?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $736 held · ends Nov 5

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$736.2

Combined PnL

$28.47

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 56.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$331.74

Total Shares484

Combined PnL+$43.87

No6 traders

Total Value$91.86

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$15.4

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 49.6¢	$363.11	$312.6	+$9.36	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.6¢	$161.61	$195.55	+$36.87
└ No leg	Noavg 50.9¢	$140.11	$117.06	-$27.51
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 47.1¢	$257.87	$302.15	+$44.28	44% 810-1039 (1849)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$45.27	$38.51	-$6.76	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$26.93	$26.58	-$0.35	54% 10126-8753 (18879)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$24	$21.25	-$2.75	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$13.8	$12.75	-$1.05	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$9.78	$7.49	-$2.3	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$7.29	$6.56	-$0.73	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$7.13	$5.31	-$1.81	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$3.06	$3	-$0.06	55% 4438-3636 (8074)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$363.11

Value

$312.6

PnL

+$9.36

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

Yes$161.6149.6¢+$36.87

No$140.1150.9¢-$27.51

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$257.87

Value

$302.15

PnL

+$44.28

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$45.27

Value

$38.51

PnL

-$6.76

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.93

Value

$26.58

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

10126-8753 (18879)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$2.75

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$2.3

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$7.29

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$0.73

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$7.13

Value

$5.31

PnL

-$1.81

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.