Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 18¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$249.35
-$71.54
19.7¢ → 18¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 80.8¢ | $106.61 | $109.15 | +$2.54 | 18% 364-1606 (1970) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $123.44 | $88.74 | -$64.49 | 47% 696-780 (1476) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $28.6 | $34.24 | -$12.32 | 50% 1900-1871 (3771) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $11.65 | $14.56 | +$2.91 | 59% 1916-1342 (3258) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $4.3 | $2.66 | -$0.18 | 56% 14213-11016 (25229) |
IstarothInvested
$106.61
Value
$109.15
PnL
+$2.54
Record
18%
364-1606 (1970)
Invested
$123.44
Value
$88.74
PnL
-$64.49
Record
47%
696-780 (1476)
Invested
$28.6
Value
$34.24
PnL
-$12.32
Record
50%
1900-1871 (3771)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$14.56
PnL
+$2.91
Record
59%
1916-1342 (3258)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$0.18
Record
56%
14213-11016 (25229)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.