Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 3?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $650 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$649.91
$70.95
57.4¢ → 69¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $339.49 | $408.88 | +$69.39 | 50% 698-695 (1393) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $256.17 | $230.06 | -$13.81 | 18% 381-1768 (2149) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.7¢ | $147.49 | $157.25 | +$9.48 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $91.86 | $72.82 | -$23.28 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $23.99 | $10.96 | +$1.55 | 56% 14488-11246 (25734) |
Invested
$339.49
Value
$408.88
PnL
+$69.39
Record
50%
698-695 (1393)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$256.17
Value
$230.06
PnL
-$13.81
Record
18%
381-1768 (2149)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.99
Value
$10.96
PnL
+$1.55
Record
56%
14488-11246 (25734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.