Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on October 31?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 42¢ · $287 held · ended Oct 31

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$287.06

Combined PnL

$24.71

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$173.85

Total Shares414

Combined PnL+$24.71

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fildoroCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$85.01	$162.29	+$21.25	62% 1444-892 (2336)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$60.48	$56.64	-$3.84	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$42.11	$34.33	-$7.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.6¢	$18.37	$22.31	+$3.94
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$107.52	$56.58	+$32.52	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.4¢	$37.55	$32.82	-$4.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$14.24	$23.76	+$37.25
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.4¢	$8.1	$11.56	+$3.46	50% 1843-1820 (3663)

fildoroCTR

Yes

Invested

$85.01

Value

$162.29

PnL

+$21.25

Record

62%

1444-892 (2336)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$60.48

Value

$56.64

PnL

-$3.84

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

Both legs:

No$42.1171.1¢-$7.78

Yes$18.3734.6¢+$3.94

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$107.52

Value

$56.58

PnL

+$32.52

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

No$37.5566.4¢-$4.73

Yes$14.2425.2¢+$37.25

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.1

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$3.46

Record

50%

1843-1820 (3663)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.