Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 33¢ · $539 held · ends Nov 2

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$539.21

Combined PnL

$156.86

Smart Money Entry

32.8¢ → 33¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$533.85

Total Shares1,456

Combined PnL+$156.94

No1 trader

Total Value$5.36

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$280.38	$237.62	-$42.76	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$25.97	$222.54	+$196.57	17% 402-1971 (2373)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$41.82	$41.82	+$0	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$18.95	$24.48	+$2.65	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 68¢	$5.44	$5.36	-$0.08	51% 218-210 (428)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$4.52	$4.54	+$0.02	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.4	$2.85	+$0.45	37% 758-1274 (2032)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$280.38

Value

$237.62

PnL

-$42.76

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$25.97

Value

$222.54

PnL

+$196.57

Record

17%

402-1971 (2373)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.82

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.95

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$2.65

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.45

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.