Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 24¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$283.26
$11.2
24.1¢ → 23.7¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $101.12 | $136.85 | +$35.73 | 59% 1862-1301 (3163) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $70.84 | $106.89 | +$36.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.7¢ | $30.28 | $29.96 | -$0.32 | |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $103.57 | $91.79 | -$11.78 | 50% 658-656 (1314) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $1.78 | $37.48 | +$24.75 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $22.55 | $12.19 | -$2.47 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $70.24 | $4.95 | +$0.71 | 53% 6624-5811 (12435) |
Invested
$101.12
Value
$136.85
PnL
+$35.73
Record
59%
1862-1301 (3163)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.57
Value
$91.79
PnL
-$11.78
Record
50%
658-656 (1314)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$37.48
PnL
+$24.75
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$12.19
PnL
-$2.47
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$70.24
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
6624-5811 (12435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.